Découvrez tous les articles spécialisés dans la rubrique risk factors

Peter W. Schreiber, et al.
Publié le 28.07.2021
Peter W. Schreiber
+26

BACKGROUND: As clinical signs of COVID-19 differ widely among individuals, from mild to severe, the definition of risk groups has important consequences for recommendations to the public, control measures and patient management, and needs to be reviewed regularly.

 

AIM: The aim of this study was to explore risk factors for in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission for hospitalised COVID-19 patients during the first epidemic wave in Switzerland, as an example of a country that coped well during the first wave of the pandemic.

 

METHODS: This study included all (n = 3590) adult polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed hospitalised patients in 17 hospitals from the hospital-based surveillance of COVID-19 (CH-Sur) by 1 September 2020. We calculated univariable and multivariable (adjusted) (1) proportional hazards (Fine and Gray) survival regression models and (2) logistic regression models for in-hospital mortality and admission to ICU, to evaluate the most common comorbidities as potential risk factors.

 

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We found that old age was the strongest factor for in-hospital mortality after having adjusted for gender and the considered comorbidities (hazard ratio [HR] 2.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.33−2.59 and HR 5.6 95% CI 5.23−6 for ages 65 and 80 years, respectively). In addition, male gender remained an important risk factor in the multivariable models (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.41−1.53). Of all comorbidities, renal disease, oncological pathologies, chronic respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease (but not hypertension) and dementia were also risk factors for in-hospital mortality. With respect to ICU admission risk, the pattern was different, as patients with higher chances of survival might have been admitted more often to ICU. Male gender (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.58−2.31), hypertension (OR  1.3, 95% CI 1.07−1.59) and age 55–79 years (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06−1.26) are risk factors for ICU admission. Patients aged 80+ years, as well as patients with dementia or with liver disease were admitted less often to ICU.

 

CONCLUSION: We conclude that increasing age is the most important risk factor for in-hospital mortality of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Switzerland, along with male gender and followed by the presence of comorbidities such as renal diseases, chronic respiratory or cardiovascular disease, oncological malignancies and dementia. Male gender, hypertension and age between 55 and 79 years are, however, risk factors for ICU admission. Mortality and ICU admission need to be considered as separate outcomes when investigating risk factors for pandemic control measures and for hospital resources planning.

Lia Helfenberger, et al.
Publié le 18.01.2021
Lia Helfenberger
+3

AIMS: The Centor criteria and the FeverPAIN score are recommended for guiding antibiotic prescription for tonsillitis, but they are not validated for this purpose. We aimed to identify risk factors for peritonsillar abscess in group A haemolytic streptococcus-negative tonsillitis and to test the performance of clinical scores and laboratory tests.

 

METHODS: In a retrospective case-control study at two regional hospitals from January 2015 to June 2018, we identified all cases of peritonsillar abscess and used propensity score matching utilising age and gender to select two controls per case from all patients who had a rapid group A haemolytic streptococcus antigen test in the emergency department. Exclusion criteria were age <18 years, documented refusal and a positive antigen test. We abstracted patient history, physical examination and results of laboratory testing. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors.

 

RESULTS: We included 141 cases of peritonsillar abscess, matched with 282 controls. Higher Centor score, C-reactive protein and white blood cell count were significantly associated with peritonsillar abscess, but had a low performance for predicting the latter (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [ROC AUC] 0.76). The FeverPAIN score was not associated with peritonsillar abscess (ROC AUC 0.51). In the multivariable analysis, difficulty swallowing (odds ratio [OR] 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.58–51.2), dyspnoea (OR 10.2, 95% CI 1.18–89.0), tonsillar swelling (OR 4.21, 95% CI 1.39–12.7) and unilateral signs and symptoms (OR 146, 95% CI 40.9–522) were risk factors of peritonsillar abscess.

 

CONCLUSION: The Centor criteria, as well as C-reactive protein and white blood cell count, have a low discriminatory performance, and the FeverPAIN score is not useful in identifying patients at risk for peritonsillar abscess in group A haemolytic streptococcus-negative tonsillitis. To guide a rational antibiotic prescription, new decision tools need to be developed. These might include items such as difficulty swallowing, dyspnoea, tonsillar swelling and unilaterality.

SMW

Atrial fibrillation for internists: current practice

Review article: Biomedical intelligence
Pascal Meyre, et al.
Publié le 19.03.2020
Pascal Meyre
+4

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has become a global epidemic and puts affected patients at high risk of adverse events. In this review we summarise the current evidence on risk factors and complications of AF, describe current treatment strategies, and outline new fields of research. Current evidence shows that hypertension and obesity are the two most important modifiable risk factors for the development of AF. Patients with AF face an increased stroke risk. Oral anticoagulation reduces this risk substantially. Mainly for reasons of safety and ease of use, non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants are preferred for stroke prevention. Rate and rhythm control interventions remain important and are mainly used for symptom control in AF patients. Rate control is recommended as an initial treatment and in patients with a low or absent symptom burden. Following the advent of AF ablation 20 years ago, the chances of successful sustained rhythm control have increased. Nevertheless, the procedural risks, although low, must be discussed with the patient in the context of the potential benefits. Heart failure and AF often coexist, which creates a further challenge for optimal AF management. Recent studies have shown that AF patients have a high burden of silent brain lesions, and that these lesions are associated with cognitive dysfunction. A better understanding of these interrelationships may eventually help the development of new prevention and treatment strategies to decrease the burden and complications associated with AF.

Stefan Erb, et al.
Publié le 05.11.2018
Stefan Erb
+6

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance data from surveillance networks are frequently do not accurately predict resistance patterns of urinary tract infections at the bedside.

 

OBJECTIVE: To determine simple patient- and institution-related risk factors affecting antimicrobial resistance patterns of Escherichia coli urine isolates.

 

METHODS: From January 2012 to May 2015 all consecutive urine samples with significant growth of E. coli (≥103 CFU/ml) obtained from a tertiary care hospital were analysed for antimicrobial susceptibility and related to basic clinical data such a patient age, ward, sample type (catheter vs non-catheter urine).

 

RESULTS: Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was available for 5246 E. coli urine isolates from 4870 patients. E. coli was most commonly resistant to amoxicillin (43.1%), cotrimoxazole (24.5%) and ciprofloxacin (17.4%). Resistance rates were low for meropenem (0.0%), fosfomycin (0.9%) and nitrofurantoin (1.5%). Significantly higher rates of resistance to ciprofloxacin (32.8 vs 15.8%) and cotrimoxazole (30.6 vs 23.9%) were found in urological patients compared with patients on other wards (p <0.01). In multivariable analysis, predictors for E. coli resistance against ciprofloxacin and cotrimoxazole were: treatment in the urological unit (odds ratio [OR] 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63–2.54; p <0.001 and OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.07–1.64; p = 0.010, respectively), male sex (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.630–2.29; p <0.001 and OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.22-1.04; p = 0.015), and only to a lesser extent urine samples obtained from indwelling catheters (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05–1.61; p = 0.014 and OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.04–1.53; p = 0.020). Age ≥65 years was associated with higher resistance to ciprofloxacin (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.21–1.67; p <0.001), but lower resistance to cotrimoxazole (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.86; p <0.001).

 

CONCLUSIONS: Simple bedside patient data such as age, sex and treating hospital unit help to predict antimicrobial resistance and can improve the empirical treatment of urinary tract infections.

 

 

Annina Eva Althaus, et al.
Publié le 13.09.2018
Annina Eva Althaus
+1

BACKGROUND: Hyponatraemia is the most common electrolyte disorder encountered in hospitalised patients and has an impact on outcome and survival. However, the risk factors are not yet sufficiently known.

AIMS OF THE STUDY: This retrospective analysis was conducted with the primary objective to identify the incidence of hyponatraemia in patients, who need hospitalisation from any medical reason, focusing on the quality of treatment and the risk factors for recurrent or prolonged stay due to hyponatraemia. The secondary objectives were the calculation of costs of hyponatraemia caused by hospital stays in the canton of Basel-Landschaft and the additional extrapolation of these costs for the whole country of Switzerland.

METHODS: 368 patients with a diagnosis of hyponatraemia admitted to three tertiary care centers in 2011 were included. We analysed the risk factors, causes and manifestations of hyponatraemia and their effects on length of stay and outcome.

RESULTS: Female gender (62%), advanced age (average 75 ± 12 years) and the use of thiazides (r = 0.69, p = 0.03) represented the main risk factors with negative prognostic value concerning hyponatraemia. Hyponatraemia was never asymptomatic. Seventy-three patients (20%) were diagnosed with hyponatraemia due to SIADH (syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone secretion). The in-hospital mortality rate was 9%, irrespective of the severity of hyponatraemia, and every fifth patient had persistent neurological deficits on discharge from the hospital. Age (r = 0.65, p = 0.03), female sex (r = 0.49, p =0.12; in combination with age >75years r = 0.58, p = 0.049), resumption of risk medication (r = 0.563, p = 0.02) and persistent hyponatraemia on discharge (r = −0.51, p = 0.04) were associated with higher probability of relapse. Our data, extrapolated for Switzerland, yield uncovered annual costs of 93 million CHF, mostly due to in-hospital treatment longer than that reimbursed by SwissDRG (observed median of 9 days, cost coverage by SwissDRG 5 days for non-SIADH hyponatraemia and 6.5 days for SIADH).

CONCLUSIONS: As even mild hyponatraemia is associated with an increased risk of morbidity and mortality, it is highly important to recognise it. Initial diagnostic evaluation, treatment based on volume status and thorough follow-up are crucial to avoid relapse. Hyponatraemia, based on the results of this retrospective study, constitutes a considerable medical and economic burden in Switzerland and has a serious impact on the hospital balance sheets.

Marc Uhlmann, et al.
Publié le 24.07.2017
Marc Uhlmann
+4

INTRODUCTION: The 30-day post-discharge readmission rate is a quality indicator that may reflect suboptimal care. The computerised algorithm SQLape® can retrospectively identify a potentially avoidable readmission (PARA) with high sensitivity and specificity. We retrospectively analysed the hospital stays of patients readmitted to the Department of Internal Medicine of the CHUV (Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois) in order to quantify the proportion of PARAs and derive a risk prediction model.

METHOD: All hospitalisations between January 2009 and December 2011 in our division of general internal medicine were analysed. Readmissions within 30 days of discharge were categorised using SQLape®. The impact on PARAs was tested for various clinical and nonclinical factors. The performance of the developed model was compared with the well-validated LACE and HOSPITAL scores.

RESULTS: From a total of 11 074 hospital stays, 777 (7%) were followed with PARA within 30 days. By analysing a group of 6729 eligible stays, defined in particular by the patients' returning to their place of residence (home or residential care centre), we identified the following risk factors: ≥1 hospitalisation in the year preceding index admission, Charlson score >1, active cancer, hyponatraemia, length of stay >11 days, prescription of ≥15 different medications during the stay. These variables were used to derive a risk prediction model for PARA with a good discriminatory power (C-statistic 0.70) and calibration (p = 0.69). Patients were then classified as low (16.4%), intermediate (49.4%) or high (34.2%) risk of PARA. The estimated risk of PARA for each category was 3.5%, 8.7% and 19.6%, respectively. The LACE and the HOSPITAL scores were significantly correlated with the PARA risk. The discriminatory power of the LACE (C-statistic 0.61) and the HOSPITAL (C-statistic 0.54) were lower than our model.

CONCLUSION: Our model identifies patients at high risk of 30-day PARA with a good performance. It could be used to target transition of care interventions. Nevertheless, this model should be validated on more data and could be improved with additional parameters. Our results highlight the difficulty to generalise one model in the context of different healthcare systems.